Last week's warning of a crash in the commodity index is on the way and poised to occur in the next three weeks. Though copper remained in range, it is displaying signs of weakness. Meanwhile, coffee is trying to stabilize while the stock market gave signs of weakness. Gold remained strong while silver traded powerfully. Grains nicely settled down and oil surged as though the deposits will soon be depleted. All around, the commodity remained a clear winner. On the other side, the dollar was the dominant force in the currency market.
Once again, I was wrong concerning oil in my short-term prediction. Indeed I am now scared by oil’s move for it looks as though it’s a rapid surge prior to an eventual collapse. On its part, gold wants to move ahead but silver remain stable and tugging it back.
There are two important issues that I have been talking about since early this year. These are;
- A major false story will emanate from or concerning China and the USA will push China into a major internal crisis similar to the former USSR. The other issue is that
- OIL WITH TWO POSSIBILITIES: (a) A powerful and wealthy albeit concealed enemy of the USA will wage a highly coordinated war against it, using oil as the weapon. They will manipulate the cost of oil to such exorbitant levels that any major war will precipitate the collapse of the USA or indeed the world economy. This cabal of USA enemies will not employ the known methods of terror like suicide bomb attacks or any other terrorist strategies. They are going to attempt to hit the underbelly of the USA economy- oil. Once again, I would like to sound a warning to the USA authorities to be very vigilant and closely monitor the trade of oil, failure to which it may be too late to intervene (as oil could touch $100 or $150) and save their economy.
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 JUNE TO 1 JULY 2005
GOLD
During this week, gold will remain stable though it will lose some ground. Therefore, my advice is that you can books profit in metal stocks. In addition, gold may move up to $448.10 while the downside will be $434.70. Whenever a commodity is running into a positive cycle BUT MAJOR CRASH ON THE WAY. In a negative phase, it will touch the downside price, so trade accordingly. For instance, last week I said that the upside could be $442 and the down side $429. In the worst case, it could therefore have gone down to $429.
One can book profit again on Thursday and stay away for a few days.
SILVER
Silver will have a positive move early in the week but it won't be able to sustain at higher price. Don't buy any new silver above $7.30. During the week, silver could touch $7.04 and if it breaks $7.04, then it could go up to $6.9. After two weeks, silver will have a strong rise. You should therefore set some money aside for buying silver on each fall.
Monday and from Wednesday silver will move down.
SELL SILVER STOCKS AT THIS POINT.
PALLADIUM/COPPER/PLATINUM
Copper and Platinum both look weak, but Palladium is trading in the buying range. The rise of Copper is very near its end and it should remain down for a few years. There will therefore be no need to take a risk for a few dollars worth of profit.
Highly recommended - Sell copper, steel and base material stocks.
OIL
A further seven week phase is positive for oil while the subsequent nine months will be weak, so plan accordingly. Oil has crossed the most important barrier of $57.90 and the next price target of $62.10 looks maximum level during this wave in the near future. After this, oil may then move downwards quite fast (more than 20% in few days, not week). However, this should not be construed to mean that I am recommending buying at this point. Maximum it can fall in few months to $48.80 before it reach to $100. On Wednesday of this week and oil could crash more than two dollars in the last hour of trading.
COFFEE
As I said last week, coffee is a good buy around $107 and I am reiterating the same prediction. The downside risk for coffee is around two percent while there is no limit on the upside. Accumulate COFFEE.
COTTON
Last week I recommended buying and it did well. This week, you should add more cotton. The next three weeks looks very interesting and cotton could go up more than 15%. BUY COTTON.
STOCK MARKET
Thursday and Friday market gave some negative signals and it should remain weak for this week. Soon, the DOW will bid farewell to five digits. Remain short in indexes. If this time all comes fully under the grip of nature, then it should tumble more than 800 points in the next twenty eight days.
BUYING RECOMMENDATION - Only the alternative energy sector will perform well during this week. These stocks will boldly move ahead.
TREASURY BOND
Last week, it moved up quite strongly and I expect it to perform similarly this week also. Soon, the 30 Year bond will cross the 120 mark and you should therefore stay long in it. The Bond will remain strong for another 27 days.
GRAINS
For this week, wheat looks quite positive so one can shift positions from Soybean to wheat as Soybean looks weak. Corn will remain stable in the range of $226 but wheat could reach $350. (I am talking about September contracts). For long term traders I recommend buying options for December 2005 and March 2006. Any five percent down can be taken as a buying opportunity in grains.
CURRENCIES
This week, all major currencies will remain very volatile. If the dollar starts on a positive day on Monday, then it will remain up till Wednesday and may cross the $90 mark. On the other hand, if Monday opens weak, then it should remain weak till Wednesday, while a strong rise will occur on Thursday and Friday. In both cases one thing is therefore evident, that the US dollar will cross $90.00. Don't short the dollar because it is in the full grip of nature’s wave and should rise continually.
The Australian dollar and Yen could rapidly move down and one can therefore short them.
This week’s trade should be:
BUY - DOLLAR, COFFEE, COTTON AND WHEAT
SELL - STOCK MARKET, YEN and the AUSSI Dollar.
AVOID - OIL AND OTHER WEAK AREAS BECAUSE THEY ARE OUT OF ZONE. IT IS ALWAYS RISKY TO TRADE WITH WHEN ANY COMMODITY TRADES IN THE NO GRAVITY ZONE.
In the market, I continue to urge that you don't love or hate any commodity or currency.
As I said last week, I shall be spending three days in Zurich.
My webmaster was out of town and coming tomorrow so he will put new price of subscription any time now, those who still wish to renew or extend can do it in next 24 hours.
GOOD LUCK, TRADE SAFELY.
Thanks and God Bless
Mahendra 25 JUNE 2005